Portfolio archive

Project archive

Finance, business intelligence, research, and strategy work beyond the three featured homepage cases.

Browse projects by specialty

Browse the deeper business intelligence, finance, strategy, and research work. Each card opens its method and supporting evidence.

Four selected projects. Open a card for the full method and evidence.

Independent public-company case · Pfizer Inc.

Executive Performance Intelligence Dashboard

A decision-intelligence dashboard translating publicly reported Pfizer FY2024–FY2025 financial statements into governed KPIs, cash-flow signals, ratio analysis, and executive actions.

  • Excel and Power BI-ready dashboard architecture
  • Formula-linked financial model and ETL-ready tables
  • Executive KPI governance, risk framing, and sensitivity analysis

Independent portfolio analysis · Public filings · Not commissioned or endorsed by Pfizer

Business Intelligence & Analysis · Excel

Business & Data Analysis

An end-to-end Excel analysis of 263 observations, connecting a governed codebook and prepared data to descriptive statistics, pivot analysis, and a 27-variable correlation model.

  • Correlation analysis and executive visual interpretation
  • Descriptive statistics, pivot tables, and segmented comparisons
  • Traceable raw data, iteration data, and variable definitions

Business Intelligence & Analysis · Excel

Regression Analysis with Excel

A four-model regression analysis examining how broad-market and technology-sector prices and returns relate to Amazon across more than 1,550 observations.

  • Interactive regression plots and fitted-value inspection
  • Read-only Excel evidence with transparent calculations
  • Executive interpretation of R², coefficients, significance, and risk

Four regressions cover price levels and daily returns separately. Price-level R² can reflect common trends; predictive performance is not established by these fits.

Business Intelligence & Analysis · Forecasting

Time Series Forecasting & Decision Intelligence

A formula-transparent forecasting case comparing 10-, 50-, and 200-day moving averages with exponential smoothing across 1,554 price observations.

  • Selectable Excel calculations with formula inspection
  • Four actual-versus-forecast visual comparisons
  • Executive interpretation of MAD, MSE, MAPE, and decision risk

Accuracy basis: within-workbook comparison on the supplied historical price series. A separate out-of-sample holdout is not documented; these error measures are not verified out-of-sample accuracy.

FP&A Portfolio

Independent public-company case · Pfizer Inc.

Cash Flow Performance Analysis

A formula-linked FP&A review of Pfizer’s publicly reported 2025 operating, investing, and financing cash flows—connecting cash conversion, dividend capacity, liquidity, and management actions.

  • $11.704B operating cash flow
  • $9.075B free cash flow
  • 1.20× operating cash flow dividend coverage

Independent portfolio analysis · Public filings · Not commissioned or endorsed by Pfizer

FP&A Portfolio

Independent public-company case · Pfizer Inc.

Integrated Financial Analysis Workbook

A view-only FP&A exhibit using Pfizer’s public financial statements to connect reported inputs, ratio interpretation, cash-flow and depreciation analysis, capability integration, and documented sources.

  • Financial statement comparison
  • Liquidity, profitability, solvency, and efficiency ratios
  • Cash-flow, depreciation, and managerial metrics

Independent portfolio analysis · Public filings · Not commissioned or endorsed by Pfizer

Valuation Modeling & Analysis · Damodaran Technique

Valuation Modeling & Analysis – The Hershey Company

A formula-transparent intrinsic valuation translating a business narrative into revenue growth, operating margins, reinvestment, risk, cost of capital, terminal value, and equity value.

  • Damodaran story-to-numbers and FCFF framework
  • Cost of capital, synthetic rating, and failure-risk analysis
  • 17 read-only worksheets with 1,241 inspectable formulas

FP&A Portfolio

Independent public-company case · Pfizer Inc.

Financial Strategy & Market Expansion

A 10-slide executive project using Pfizer’s public disclosures to combine multi-year ratio analysis, cash-flow quality, forecast assumptions, capital-allocation priorities, and a focused India growth thesis.

  • 2022–2025 financial trend analysis
  • 2026–2028 portfolio estimate · base-case outlook
  • Modeled potential · India specialty-care expansion

Independent portfolio analysis · Public filings · Not commissioned or endorsed by Pfizer

Market Entry · Omnichannel · Brazil

Nike Brazil Market Entry Strategy

An evidence-led international growth strategy recommending a joint venture-led omnichannel entry that balances brand control, local execution, capital discipline, and regulatory risk.

  • Brazil market attractiveness and entry-mode decision
  • Four-phase launch and 12–18 month test-and-scale plan
  • Financial, operational, legal, IP, and data-risk controls
Open publication · 2026

Forecasting · Applied AI · Validation

When Does Artificial Intelligence Improve ARIMA Forecasts?

A validated hybrid residual-learning framework examining when AI adds measurable forecasting value beyond a transparent ARIMA baseline.

AuthorMatthias Mbarga, MBA.RepositoryZenodoDOI10.5281/zenodo.21199900

Mbarga, M. N. S. (2026). When Does Artificial Intelligence Improve ARIMA Forecasts? A Validated Hybrid Residual-Learning Framework for Business and Financial Time Series.

Open working paper · 2026

Agentic AI · LLMs · Portfolio Risk

Agentic AI, LLM Methodologies, and Workflow-Level ROI in Portfolio Risk Analysis

An evidence-constrained study of how agentic AI and large-language-model workflows can be evaluated through measurable decision quality, risk controls, and operational return.

AuthorMatthias Mbarga, MBA.RepositorySSRNDOI10.2139/ssrn.6791859

Mbarga, M. (2026). Agentic AI, Large Language Model Methodologies, and Workflow-Level ROI in Portfolio Risk Analysis at Navy Federal Credit Union. SSRN Electronic Journal.

View SSRN record ↗

Research case based on the paper’s disclosed methodology. The title identifies Navy Federal Credit Union as the study setting; this is an independent research publication, not a Navy Federal employment role, consulting engagement, commissioned project, organizational endorsement, or evidence of access to confidential client records.

FP&A Portfolio

FP&A · Common-Size · Ratios

Procter & Gamble vs. Kimberly-Clark — Comparative Financial Model

A standardized comparison of Procter & Gamble and Kimberly-Clark translating income statements, balance sheets, and ratios into decision-ready financial-health signals.

  • Margin and expense architecture
  • Liquidity, leverage, ROA, and ROE formulas
  • Capital-structure and sustainability interpretation

FP&A Portfolio

FP&A · Trends · Earnings Quality

Procter & Gamble vs. Kimberly-Clark — Three-Year Performance & Cash-Flow Intelligence

A multi-period analysis separating durable operating performance from volatility and non-recurring gains across two global consumer-products companies.

  • Revenue, operating income, earnings, and cash-flow trends
  • Growth, margin, and earnings-quality diagnostics
  • Strategic outlook and capital-allocation implications

FP&A Portfolio

FP&A · Executive Brief · Decision Support

Procter & Gamble vs. Kimberly-Clark — Comparative Performance Executive Brief

A senior-management presentation connecting profitability, capital structure, liquidity, and operating efficiency to long-term investment and partnership decisions.

  • Executive KPI scorecard and visual benchmarking
  • Risk-adjusted comparative recommendation
  • Calculation transparency and management narrative

Operating Model

Analytics Transformation Roadmap

A governance-led roadmap connecting data pipelines, dashboards, roles, controls, and feedback loops to measurable business outcomes.

  • Enterprise data and KPI operating model
  • Governance, decision rights, and control architecture
  • Phased implementation and value-realization roadmap

Applied AI · Governance · Value Realization

AI-Enabled Enterprise Strategy

An executive framework for selecting, governing, and scaling AI initiatives that improve decisions without compromising trust, compliance, or operational resilience.

  • AI opportunity portfolio and prioritization gates
  • Responsible-AI governance and human oversight
  • Value measurement, adoption, and operating controls
How project evidence is labeled

Project narratives follow the STAR method: situation and task, action, supporting evidence, and result. Company-based analyses use public information and are independent educational or professional portfolio work unless explicitly stated otherwise. They are not endorsed by the named companies and are not investment advice. Repository-linked work preserves source attribution and applicable licensing.

Compare dashboard presentationsPower BI and Tableau analytical practices · read only

Interactive dashboard portfolio

Explore the dashboard evidence.

Hover or focus a value for context. Open the full case for formulas and source details.

Power BI portfolio view

Interactive web presentation · Executive financial performance

Interactive · Read only
Business questionHow strong is cash generation—and where is the constraint?
EvidencePublic FY2024–FY2025 filings with traceable calculations
Decision signalStrong cash quality; limited dividend and liquidity cushion
Cash conversion

From operating cash flow to free cash flow

USD billions
Operating cash Capital spending Free cash
Decision ratios

Resilience and constraint signals

FY2025

Blue: coverage · Gold: monitor · Coral: liquidity constraint. Read the printed ratios; bar lengths are visual cues.

Power BI · Companion chart

Cash performance, year over year

Comparable cash and earnings measures from the Pfizer financial model. Horizontal scale: USD billions.

FY2024 FY2025
Operating cash flow
Cash dividends paid
Net income

Operating cash flow fell while dividends rose. The direction of both measures makes dividend headroom a useful management question.

Hover or focus any metricExact values and business meaning will appear here.
Independent public-company case · Pfizer public filings · USD unless noted · Not commissioned or endorsed by Pfizer
Inspect the data model and systems integration specificationSource-to-target mapping → SQL views → acceptance checks · public-data case

This runnable model shows the grain, source basis, SQL transformations, acceptance checks, and decision measures behind the public-company case. It is a portfolio demonstration, not a production deployment or employer system.

  1. SourceSelected FY2024–FY2025 figures with units and source basis; missing values stay missing.
  2. ModelSQLite metric table and documented SQL views for cash conversion and dividend coverage.
  3. ValidateCheck unique metric-year records, source basis, missing values, and the FY2025 cash bridge: 11,704 − 2,629 = 9,075 (USD millions).
View source-to-target mapping and acceptance results
SourceTargetRule and observed result
Metric and fiscal-year columnsMetric-year recordsSix approved metrics expand to 12 unique records · Passed
Empty FY2024 CapEx cellSQL NULLMissing remains missing, not zero · Passed
FY2025 OCF and CapExFree cash flow view11,704 − 2,629 = 9,075 USD millions · Passed
FY2025 OCF and dividendsDecision measuresCoverage 1.20×; FCF less dividends −696 · Passed

These are observed checks on a local public-data model. They do not represent an employer interface or production deployment.

Download source-to-target specification (.md) ↓ Download runnable model, mapping, SQL, and data (.zip) ↓
Pfizer portfolio model · technical validation recordFour checks passed · inspect the handoff ↗
Independent public-data case

Cash-flow model publication gate

PORTFOLIO CHECKS PASSED

A real local execution of the downloadable SQLite model passed its documented checks. This validation applies to the portfolio extract and calculations only; no external organization approved or adopted it.

Source lineage · passed12 metric-year records

Six named metrics across FY2024 and FY2025, one row per metric-year with nonempty source basis. The missing FY2024 capital-expenditure value remains NULL.

Calculation control · passed11,704 − 2,629 = 9,075

FY2025 operating cash flow less capital expenditure agrees with the supplied free-cash-flow model value, in USD millions.

Decision measures · passed1.20× coverage · −696 gap

Operating cash flow divided by 9,771 in dividends rounds to 1.20; free cash flow less dividends equals −696, in USD millions.

Reproducible handoff · passedRun, inspect, repeat

Re-run the Python loader against the CSV and SQL files. The script stops if the metric set, cash bridge, dividend calculations, or missing-value control changes.

Disposition: validated for portfolio publication. This is a technical check, not a Pfizer, Dominion Systems Inc., client, or vendor sign-off, production deployment, or investment approval.

Download validation record and file hashes (.md) ↓

Project

ChallengeApproachEvidenceImpact